Is a Real Cyclogenesis Case Explained by Generalized Linear Baroclinic Instability?

Midlatitude cyclogenesis is currently often explained as resulting from the baroclinic instability of a jet flow. The present formulation of the theory, essentially resulting from the deep revision performed by Farrell, associates incipient cyclones with amplifying singular vectors of a linear propagator operator obtained by linearizing the relevant model equations (balanced or not) about a trajectory representing the jet flow alone. A major difficulty for transposing the theoretical framework to a real case, and then opening the way to quantitative verifications of the theory, is this separation of an actual realization of cyclogenesis into the cyclone as a perturbation on one side and its environment on the other. A methodology to obtain such a separation in a reasonably objective and dynamically consistent way is presented. It enables obtaining two diabatic primitive equation solutions about the 26 December 1999 intense storm, one that has the event and the other that has most of the characteristics of the exceptional baroclinic environment of that case, except the storm itself. It is then possible to employ the theoretical framework without further approximation and to compare the predicted unstable modes with the storm representing itself as a perturbation. Two aspects of the theory are especially studied. One is a comparison of the properties of the real and predicted systems, focusing on their structures. The other deals with the idea that precursor structures, although very different from the theoretical modes, trigger the cyclogenesis by exciting these modes. It appears that the classical predictions (scales, etc.) of such a theory are, for most of them, far away from the observed properties. It is clear that the structure of a singular vector has little to share with that of a real cyclone. Yet, a weaker, slower storm does occur as a result of applying the theory to the stormless trajectory.