Open AccessOvercoming COVID-19 in West African countries: is herd immunity an option?
Author(s) -
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi,
Abayomi Akande,
Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
the pan african medical journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.287
H-Index - 30
ISSN - 1937-8688
DOI - 10.11604/pamj.supp.2020.35.2.24217
Subject(s) - herd immunity , case fatality rate , medicine , covid-19 , immunity , herd , population , demography , environmental health , immunology , veterinary medicine , immune system , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , pathology , sociology
The coronavirus infection (COVID-19) to date has no vaccine or effective treatment. Herd immunity offers indirect protection to susceptible members of the population. If the acquired immunity of a community rises above 67%, then a gradual decline in the number of incident cases is recorded. How many deaths would have occurred in the West African countries by the time at least 67% of our people are infected with the present case fatality rate (CFR)? The objective of this study was to develop a forecast of the number of COVID-19 deaths that would be recorded to attain herd immunity for each country in West-Africa. We predicted the numbers of deaths using publicly available demographic and COVID-19 data. To attain herd immunity in West Africa 5.2 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred assuming the CFR is maintained at the current rates in the region. Attention should be focused on strategies that would limit the spread of infection and protect the most vulnerable population groups while the race to develop an effective vaccine should be hastened.