CURRENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR DETERMINING OF PREDICTORS OF THREATENED PRETERM LABOR

The aim of the study – to ascertain predictors of a threat of premature birth. Materials and Methods. 63 patients participated in the gestation period of 22–34 weeks in a prospective open study. Pregnant women were divided into two groups. Thus, the group I included 44 pregnant women, with the threat of PL, and the group II included 19 patients with normal course of pregnancy. All women were tested for body mass index (BMI), progesterone, insulin and cortisol on the day of admission. Statistical processing of materials was carried out by using the software package "Statistica 6.0" (StatSoft, USA) and MedCalc. 10.2.0.0. To determine the predictors of the occurrence of a TPL, the method of binary logistic regression analysis was used. All statistical tests were two-sided; the p-0.05 level was considered as significant. Results and Discussion. An analysis of the results of the observation of 63 pregnant women was provided. In 12 women, pregnancy ended in preterm labor, which was 19 % of the total. The following indicators fell to the dependent predictors of TPL occurrence: body mass index (BMI) ≤ 24 kg/m² significantly increased the odds ratio (OR) of TPL 7.76 times; insulin level <8.65 µMU/ml significantly increased ORR of TPL 5.14 times; OR of TPL increases in 7.02 times, in case that the level of cortisol is less than 577.9 ng/ml; progesterone <139.5 ng/ml increases the odds ratio of TPL in 4.39 times. Taking into account the data of univariate regression analysis, multivariate models of independent predictors of TPL were created. According to the first model (p = 0.0001), independent risk factors for miscarriage include: the age of pregnant women over 25 years, an insulin level more than 8.7 μMO/ml, and the level of cortisol less than 577.9ng/ml. According to the second model (p <0.0001), independent risk factors which increase the risk of TPL occurrence are: BMI less than 24 kg/m2, insulin level more than 8.7 μMO/ml, cortisol level less than 577.9ng / ml. However, the most interesting is the third model (p <0.0001) of independent risk factors for TPL. It includes four indicators: the level of progesterone, less than 139.5 ng/ml, the level of cortisol, less than 577.9 ng/ml, the BMI, less than 24 kg/m2 and the age of pregnant, more than 25 years. Conclusions. It was found that in pregnant women with a threat of preterm birth the age and BMI are the most informative, and in combination with the hormonal examination of women are of primary importance. The obtained results indicate the expedien­cy of inclusion to the standard examination of pregnant women with a threat of premature birth, a comprehensive determination of the level of progesterone, insulin and cortisol, which will enable to identify the risk group for this complication in time and to propose preventive measures.