Open AccessResearch on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
Author(s) -
Dewang Li,
Jianbao Chen,
Meilan Qiu
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of mathematics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.252
H-Index - 13
eISSN - 2314-4785
pISSN - 2314-4629
DOI - 10.1155/2021/3320910
Subject(s) - mathematics , population , statistics , fractional calculus , mathematical optimization , sociology , demography
In this paper, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model are constructed. The coefficients of the optimal weighted combination model are determined by minimizing the sum of squares of resists of each model. On the other hand, the optimal conformable fractional order and dynamic background value coefficient are determined by the quantum inspired evolutionary algorithm (QIEA). Taking the resident population from 2008 to 2018 as the research object, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model were used to study the estimated and predicted values. The results are compared and analyzed. The results show that the fractional grey model is better than the optimal weighted combination model in the estimation of the values. The optimal weighted combination model is better than the fractional grey model in predicting. Meanwhile, the fractional grey model is found to be very suitable for the data values that are large, and the changes between the data are relatively small. The research results expand the application of the fractional grey model and have important implications for the policy implementation activities of Huizhou government according to the population growth trend in Huizhou.