Open AccessHOW MUCH COULD ARTICLE 6 ENHANCE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION AMBITION TOWARD PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS THROUGH ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY?
Author(s) -
James A. Edmonds,
Sha Yu,
Haewon McJeon,
Dirk Forrister,
Joseph E. Aldy,
Nathan Hultman,
Ryna Cui,
Stephanie Waldhoff,
Leon Clarke,
Stefano De Clara,
Clayton Munnings
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
climate change economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.556
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 2010-0086
pISSN - 2010-0078
DOI - 10.1142/s201000782150007x
Subject(s) - limit (mathematics) , climate change mitigation , economics , climate change , environmental economics , term (time) , natural resource economics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , ecology , physics , quantum mechanics , biology
The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2 ° C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by [Formula: see text]$[Formula: see text], which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO 2 /year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO 2 /year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.