Integrating forest restoration, adaptation, and proactive fire management: Rogue River Basin case study

Uncharacteristic disturbances exacerbated by climate change are challenging forests and social systems of North America. To improve efficiency and effectiveness of forest management to address these challenges, we demonstrated structured decision-making in the collaborative development of a novel 20-year dry forest management strategy for southwestern Oregon, USA. We framed priorities and evaluated options with a wildfire risk assessment, then modeled stand-scale prescriptions to estimate management outputs (e.g., area treated, fuels reduced, and timber volume). We mapped landscape-scale objectives and used optimization software to prioritize treatment placement constrained by realistic access considerations and robust habitat protections. The resulting prioritization integrated proactive forest adaptation and fire management (ecological forest thinning, prescribed fire) with protection of imperiled species. To evaluate tradeoffs, we tested three 20-year scenarios, finding that the All-Lands scenario best mitigated wildfire risk; it reduced risk overall by 70%, to homes by 50%, and to core northern spotted owl habitat by 47%. This scenario treated 25% of the 1.9 million ha landscape, including 31% of federal land and 40% of the community at risk. Clear articulation of collaborative objectives and evaluation of scenarios have expanded partnerships and co-investment in actions supporting a shared vision of resilient southwestern Oregon forests applicable to other landscapes.