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Trends in age at detection in cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Belgium: an indicator of the epidemic curve
Author(s) -
Saegerman C.,
Speybroeck N.,
Vanopdenbosch E.,
Wilesmith J. W.,
Berkvens D.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
veterinary record
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.261
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 2042-7670
pISSN - 0042-4900
DOI - 10.1136/vr.159.18.583
Subject(s) - bovine spongiform encephalopathy , virology , environmental health , medicine , geography , biology , prion protein , pathology , disease
There were 118 cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy ( bse ) in Belgium before January 1, 2004. Trends in their age at detection were analysed and attempts were made to use this parameter as a predictor of the current status of the bse epidemic in the country. The following variables were considered: date of birth, breed, date of detection, mode of detection, and the number and age of animals slaughtered and rendered each month. Age at detection as a function of date of birth was a very poor epidemiological indicator. It was concluded that the increasing age of bse cases when they were detected was due to the depletion of cases, as a result of there being no new infections, and that it is a reliable indicator of a decrease in the epidemic curve in Belgium. By means of a simulation it is shown how age distribution at the time of detection closely follows the epidemic curve and data from Great Britain are used to illustrate the point.