Open AccessUnraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene
Author(s) -
A. E. Lawman,
Pedro DiNezio,
J. W. Partin,
Sylvia Dee,
Kaustubh Thirumalai,
Terrence M. Quinn
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
science advances
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.928
H-Index - 146
ISSN - 2375-2548
DOI - 10.1126/sciadv.abm4313
Subject(s) - holocene , climatology , coral , climate model , multivariate enso index , el niño southern oscillation , proxy (statistics) , climate change , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , oceanography , geology , southern oscillation , machine learning , computer science
Uncertainty surrounding the future response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability to anthropogenic warming necessitates the study of past ENSO sensitivity to substantial climate forcings over geological history. Here, we focus on the Holocene epoch and show that ENSO amplitude and frequency intensified over this period, driven by an increase in extreme El Niño events. Our study combines new climate model simulations, advances in coral proxy system modeling, and coral proxy data from the central tropical Pacific. Although the model diverges from the observed coral data regarding the exact magnitude of change, both indicate that modern ENSO variance eclipsed paleo-estimates over the Holocene, albeit against the backdrop of wide-ranging natural variability. Toward further constraining paleo-ENSO, our work underscores the need for multimodel investigations of additional Holocene intervals alongside more coral data from periods with larger climate forcing. Our findings implicate extreme El Niño events as an important rectifier of mean ENSO intensity.