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Potential distribution of two A mbrosia species in C hina under projected climate change
Author(s) -
Qin Z,
DiTommaso A,
Wu R S,
Huang H Y
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
weed research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.693
H-Index - 74
eISSN - 1365-3180
pISSN - 0043-1737
DOI - 10.1111/wre.12100
Subject(s) - habitat , species distribution , ecology , range (aeronautics) , biology , geography , materials science , composite material
Summary The invasion of A mbrosia artemisiifolia and A mbrosia trifida from their native range to occupy large areas in C hina has raised considerable concern. Using the maximum entropy ( M axent) method, we developed models for each A mbrosia species, based on occurrence records from both native ranges ( N orth A merica) and their invaded ranges (e.g. northern and south‐western E urope) to predict the availability and distribution of suitable habitats for these two species in C hina. For each species, we also assessed potential shifts in habitat suitability for the year 2050, using three general circulation models ( GCM s) and two emission scenarios. Elevation and average mean precipitation in O ctober contributed most to model development for both species. Potential distribution projections under future climatic change scenarios suggested an averaged percentage of suitable area (2.21%) and habitat gain (1.49%) in A . artemisiifolia distribution, with further expansion to environmentally favourable locations in south‐east coastal regions, northern T aiwan and the B eijing– T ianjin– T angshan area in northern C hina. Future predicted percentage of suitable area for A . trifida was 0.03% with a very limited suitable habitat gain of <1% although this species had the potential to continue to spread in northern C hina. Our findings suggest that management priorities should be focused on A . artemisiifolia , whilst effective control strategies for A . trifida may be optimised by concentrating efforts on those relatively fewer regions of C hina where the species is currently abundant.