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Uncertainty assessment of streamflow projection under the impact of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin: a case study of the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam
Author(s) -
Hoan Nguyen Xuan,
Khoi Dao Nguyen,
Nhi Pham Thi Thao
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
water and environment journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.437
H-Index - 37
eISSN - 1747-6593
pISSN - 1747-6585
DOI - 10.1111/wej.12447
Subject(s) - downscaling , streamflow , environmental science , climate change , climatology , swat model , soil and water assessment tool , quantile , drainage basin , water resources , representative concentration pathways , projection (relational algebra) , structural basin , climate model , hydrology (agriculture) , geography , geology , mathematics , statistics , ecology , paleontology , oceanography , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology , algorithm
Uncertainty assessment of future projection of streamflow is of the essence for an effective formulation of water resources management and planning adaptive to climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the uncertainty in streamflow projection under the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin. Uncertainty associated with emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), General Circulation Models (GCMs) (CanESM2, CNMR‐CM5 and HadGEM2‐AO), statistical downscaling methods (delta change method, quantile mapping and SDSM), and hydrological models (ANN, HEC‐HMS and SWAT) is examined. The results showed the largest uncertainty source of the streamflow projection is the GCM simulations, followed by the statistical downscaling methods, hydrological models and emission scenarios. In addition, the use of hydrological models has a considerable impact on uncertainty in the simulations of dry seasonal streamflow. Generally, the present study highlighted the importance of using multi‐GCMs in the studies on hydrological impact of climate change.