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Development and validation of a hemangiosarcoma likelihood prediction model in dogs presenting with spontaneous hemoabdomen: The HeLP score
Author(s) -
Schick Ashley R.,
Hayes Galina M.,
Singh Ameet,
Mathews Kyle G.,
Higginbotham Mary Lynn,
Sherwood J. Matthew
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of veterinary emergency and critical care
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.886
H-Index - 47
eISSN - 1476-4431
pISSN - 1479-3261
DOI - 10.1111/vec.12838
Subject(s) - medicine , model validation , data science , computer science
Objective To calculate a risk prediction model for hemangiosarcoma (HSA) diagnosis in dogs presenting with nontraumatic hemoabdomen. Design Retrospective multicenter observational cohort study enrolling dogs presented 2003–2016. Setting Five academic veterinary medical centers. Animals A total of 406 dogs with nontraumatic hemoabdomen as the presenting complaint that underwent surgical exploration or necropsy and received a histological diagnosis. Overall, 219 dogs from 3 centers provided the data for model construction, and 187 dogs from 2 centers provided the population for external validation. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results The risk score was modeled on 4 predictors: bodyweight ( P = 0.01), total plasma protein ( P < 0.01), platelet count ( P < 0.01), and thoracic radiograph findings ( P = 0.02). The incidence of HSA diagnosis was 36%, 76%, and 96% in the low risk (≤40), medium risk (41–55), and high risk (>55) score groups, respectively. The risk score AUROC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.90) on the construction population, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.84) on the validation population. Conclusions The risk of HSA diagnosis in dogs presenting with nontraumatic hemoabdomen could be predicted using a simple risk score, which could aid in identification and treatment of dogs at lower risk for this diagnosis.