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Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won, which lost?
Author(s) -
Gunter Bernhard G.,
Wilcher Britni
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
the world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/twec.12915
Subject(s) - globalization , economics , foreign direct investment , per capita , developing country , international economics , development economics , robustness (evolution) , per capita income , macroeconomics , economic growth , market economy , population , biochemistry , chemistry , demography , sociology , gene
Abstract The world average exports‐to‐GDP ratio increased from 17% in 1985 to 27% in 2015. Hence, world exports have grown much faster than world GDP. However, despite this overall trade integration, which is a key aspect of globalisation, the exports‐to‐GDP ratios have declined for 29 of the 118 countries with such data from 1985 to 2015. Some countries have been driving globalisation, while others have become marginalised. This paper examines three decades of globalisation to shed some light upon which countries might be considered winners and which countries might be considered losers of globalisation. After summarising the evolution of income and income per capita, we examine the evolution of exports and net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Contradictory to previous decades, we show there are now many countries from all income groups that have either experienced marginalisation or been driving globalisation. We then use novel regression analysis to review the robustness of generally accepted drivers of globalisation and marginalisation, with education and macroeconomic stability being the two most robust determinants.