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Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?
Author(s) -
Gasiorek Michael,
Serwicka Ilona,
Smith Alasdair
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
the world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/twec.12757
Subject(s) - brexit , economics , vulnerability (computing) , production (economics) , european union , international economics , goods and services , computable general equilibrium , manufacturing sector , international trade , eu countries , market economy , macroeconomics , computer science , computer security
When the UK leaves the EU , trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK ‐ EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi‐market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high‐skilled workers falls more than for medium and low‐skilled workers.