Premium
Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis
Author(s) -
Verikios George,
Sullivan Maura,
Stojanovski Pane,
Giesecke James,
Woo Gordon
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
the world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/twec.12296
Subject(s) - pandemic , virulence , influenza pandemic , pandemic influenza , covid-19 , computable general equilibrium , economics , economic impact analysis , development economics , virology , biology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , outbreak , medicine , microeconomics , disease , biochemistry , pathology , gene
We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.