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Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Z imbabwe
Author(s) -
Mapako Tonderai,
Janssen Mart P.,
Mvere David A.,
Emmanuel Jean C.,
Rusakaniko Simbarashe,
Postma Maarten J.,
van Hulst Marinus
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
transfusion
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.045
H-Index - 132
eISSN - 1537-2995
pISSN - 0041-1132
DOI - 10.1111/trf.13472
Subject(s) - residual risk , medicine , hepatitis b virus , hepatitis c virus , incidence (geometry) , relative risk , transmission (telecommunications) , blood transfusion , window period , confidence interval , virology , estimation , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , hepatitis b , hepatitis c , immunology , demography , virus , antibody , computer science , mathematics , telecommunications , geometry , management , serology , sociology , economics
BACKGROUND Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high‐income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The National Blood Service Zimbabwe (NBSZ) adapted a published incidence‐window period (IWP) model, which has less demanding data requirements. In this study we assess the impact of various definitions of blood donor subpopulations and models on RR estimates. We compared the outcomes of two published models and an adapted NBSZ model. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS The Schreiber IWP model (Model 1), an amended version (Model 2), and an adapted NBSZ model (Model 3) were applied. Variably the three models include prevalence, incidence, preseroconversion intervals, mean lifetime risk, and person‐years at risk. Annual mean RR estimates and 95% confidence intervals for each of the three models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were determined using NBSZ blood donor data from 2002 through 2011. RESULTS The annual mean RR estimates for Models 1 through 3 were 1 in 6542, 5805, and 6418, respectively for HIV; 1 in 1978, 2027, and 1628 for HBV; and 1 in 9588, 15,126, and 7750, for HCV. CONCLUSIONS The adapted NBSZ model provided comparable results to the published methods and these highlight the high occurrence of HBV in Zimbabwe. The adapted NBSZ model could be used as an alternative to estimate RRs when in settings where two repeat donations are not available.