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Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue‐endemic regions of Pakistan
Author(s) -
Fatima Syeda Hira,
Atif Salman,
Rasheed Syed Basit,
Zaidi Farrah,
Hussain Ejaz
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
tropical medicine and international health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.056
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1365-3156
pISSN - 1360-2276
DOI - 10.1111/tmi.12664
Subject(s) - aedes aegypti , biological dispersal , dengue fever , ecology , geography , urbanization , species distribution , spatial distribution , population , range (aeronautics) , aedes , vector (molecular biology) , population density , biology , habitat , demography , larva , recombinant dna , materials science , remote sensing , biochemistry , gene , immunology , composite material , sociology
Objectives Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector‐borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue‐prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon. Methods The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions. Results Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive‐mediated dispersal of species. Conclusions In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan.