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National spatial and temporal patterns of notified dengue cases, C olombia 2007–2010
Author(s) -
Restrepo Angela Cadavid,
Baker Peter,
Clements Archie C.A.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
tropical medicine and international health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.056
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1365-3156
pISSN - 1360-2276
DOI - 10.1111/tmi.12325
Subject(s) - dengue fever , medicine , covid-19 , demography , geography , environmental health , disease , immunology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology
Objectives To explore the variation in the spatial distribution of notified dengue cases in C olombia from J anuary 2007 to D ecember 2010 and examine associations between the disease and selected environmental risk factors. Methods Data on the number of notified dengue cases in C olombia were obtained from the N ational I nstitute of H ealth ( I nstituto N acional de S alud – INS ) for the period 1 J anuary 2007 through 31 D ecember 2010. Data on environmental factors were collected from the W orldclim website. A B ayesian spatio‐temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly dengue cases and temperature, precipitation and elevation. Results Monthly dengue counts decreased by 18% (95% credible interval (CrI): 17–19%) in 2008 and increased by 30% (95% CrI: 28–31%) and 326% (95% CrI: 322–331%) in 2009 and 2010, respectively, compared to 2007. Additionally, there was a significant, nonlinear effect of monthly average precipitation. Conclusions The results highlight the role of environmental risk factors in determining the spatial of dengue and show how these factors can be used to develop and refine preventive approaches for dengue in Colombia.