Temporal trends and regional variability of 2001–2002 multiwave DENV ‐3 epidemic in Havana City: did Hurricane Michelle contribute to its severity?
Author(s) -
Hsieh YingHen,
Arazoza Hector,
Lounes Rachid
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
tropical medicine and international health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.056
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1365-3156
pISSN - 1360-2276
DOI - 10.1111/tmi.12105
Subject(s) - outbreak , typhoon , dengue fever , geography , natural disaster , basic reproduction number , transmissibility (structural dynamics) , demography , epidemic model , socioeconomics , meteorology , virology , population , biology , sociology , physics , vibration isolation , quantum mechanics , vibration
Abstract Objectives To investigate the temporal and regional variability of the 2001–2002 dengue outbreak in H avana C ity where 12 889 cases, mostly of DENV ‐3 type, were reported over a period of 7 months. Methods A simple mathematical model, the Richards model, was used to fit the weekly reported dengue case data by municipality, in order to quantify the transmissibility and temporal changes in the epidemic in each municipality via the basic reproduction number R 0 . Results Model fits indicate either a 2‐wave or 3‐wave outbreak in all municipalities. Estimates for R 0 varied greatly, from 1.97 (95% CI : 1.94, 2.01), for Arroyo Naranjo, to 61.06 (60.44, 61.68), for Boyeros, most likely due to heterogeneity in community structure, geographical locations and social networking. Conclusions Our results illustrate the potential impact of climatological events on disease spread, further highlighting the need to be well prepared for potentially worsening disease spread in the aftermath of natural disasters such as hurricanes/typhoons.