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Bayes Factors All the Way: Toward a New View of Coherence and Truth
Author(s) -
McGrew Lydia
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
theoria
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.34
H-Index - 16
eISSN - 1755-2567
pISSN - 0040-5825
DOI - 10.1111/theo.12102
Subject(s) - coherence (philosophical gambling strategy) , witness , clarity , conjunction (astronomy) , bayesian probability , focus (optics) , epistemology , bayes factor , relevance (law) , independence (probability theory) , psychology , bayes' theorem , computer science , mathematics , philosophy , artificial intelligence , statistics , political science , linguistics , law , biochemistry , chemistry , physics , astronomy , optics
A focus on the conjunction of the contents of witness reports and on the coherence of their contents has had negative effects on the epistemic clarity of the Bayesian coherence literature. Whether or not increased coherence of witness reports is correlated with higher confirmation for some H depends upon the hypothesis in question and upon factors concerning the confirmation and independence of the reports, not directly on the positive relevance of the contents to each other. I suggest that Bayesians should shift focus to “coherence for” an hypothesis – that is, to the definition and analysis of cumulative case arguments in which a body of evidence supports some hypothesis that is not restricted to the conjunction of the contents of reports. Such a shift of focus will be valuable for approaching issues such as the problem of the external world which have interested Bayesian coherentists all along.