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Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies
Author(s) -
O'Sullivan David,
Gahegan Mark,
Exeter Daniel J.,
Adams Benjamin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
transactions in gis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.721
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1467-9671
pISSN - 1361-1682
DOI - 10.1111/tgis.12660
Subject(s) - covid-19 , isolation (microbiology) , data science , computer science , pandemic , contact tracing , function (biology) , tracing , population , geography , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology , biology , medicine , evolutionary biology , demography , pathology , virology , outbreak , microbiology and biotechnology , operating system
This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.