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Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID‐19 pandemic
Author(s) -
Sugiura Katsuaki,
Kure Katsumasa,
Kato Takuma,
Kyutoku Fumiaki,
Haga Takeshi
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
transboundary and emerging diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.392
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1865-1682
pISSN - 1865-1674
DOI - 10.1111/tbed.13836
Subject(s) - covid-19 , pandemic , coronavirus infections , betacoronavirus , virology , biology , medicine , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease
Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%–24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%–2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%–0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%–0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%–0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%–0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.