Premium
A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam
Author(s) -
Lee Hu Suk,
Thakur Krishna K.,
Bui Vuong Nghia,
Pham Thanh Long,
Bui Anh Ngoc,
Dao Tung Duy,
Thanh Vu Thi,
Wieland Barbara
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
transboundary and emerging diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.392
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1865-1682
pISSN - 1865-1674
DOI - 10.1111/tbed.13802
Subject(s) - biosecurity , outbreak , african swine fever , transmission (telecommunications) , domestic pig , african swine fever virus , classical swine fever , disease control , geography , pig farming , agricultural science , veterinary medicine , environmental science , biology , animal production , ecology , zoology , virus , forestry , virology , telecommunications , computer science , medicine
The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD) region were obtained from the General Statistics Office, and then, random points corresponding to the number of farms in each province were generated as exact farm locations were not available. A total of 10 models were developed, including movement control scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of indirect contact transmission probability (TP). Overall, the indirect contact exhibited an important role in transmitting the ASF virus. In order to minimize ASF transmission between farms, we found that movement restriction needed to reach a certain level (approximately between 50% and 75%) and that the restriction had to be applied in a timely manner. This study offers valuable insight into how ASF virus can be transmitted via direct and indirect contact and controlled among farms under the various simulation scenarios. Our results suggest that the enforcement of movement restriction was an effective control measure as soon as the outbreaks were reported. In addition, this study provided evidence that high standards of biosecurity can contribute to the reduction of disease spread.