Premium
Modelling and evaluating the risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in selected areas of Kerman Province, south of Iran
Author(s) -
Aghaei Afshar Abbas,
Hojjat Fahimeh,
YaghoobiErshadi Mohammad Reza,
Rassi Yavar,
Akhavan Amir Ahmad,
Gorouhi Mohammad Amin,
Yousefi Saideh,
HanafiBojd Ahmad Ali
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
transboundary and emerging diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.392
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1865-1682
pISSN - 1865-1674
DOI - 10.1111/tbed.13465
Subject(s) - cutaneous leishmaniasis , vector (molecular biology) , veterinary medicine , christian ministry , leishmaniasis , geography , public health , environmental niche modelling , sandfly , environmental protection , environmental health , ecological niche , socioeconomics , ecology , biology , medicine , habitat , leishmania , immunology , pathology , philosophy , recombinant dna , theology , sociology , biochemistry , gene , parasite hosting , world wide web , computer science
Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a public health problem in the world, particularly in tropical and sub‐tropical countries. This study aimed to determine the hotspots of CL in Kerman Province of Iran and model their potential for the establishment of new disease foci. All documents related to studies conducted in Kerman Province on CL published between 1978 and 2017 were retrieved and categorized. Spatial distributions of the vector, reservoir and human infection of CL were mapped. MaxEnt ecological model was used to predict the environmental suitability of the vector and reservoir(s) of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL). The most hazardous sites with the potential for the establishment of new disease foci were determined for field operations. Statistics of new cases of CL was obtained from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) of the ministry of health for the period 2011–2016. A total of 6,056 cases of CL were recorded, while we found a decreasing pattern in the incidence of CL from 46.48 per 100,000 inhabitants to 22.97. The best ecological niches for Phlebotomus papatasi are located in the central, western, northwest and southwest regions of the province. Also, environmental suitability for the reservoirs was highest in the central, southern and southwestern regions. The model predicted the gerbils can be present in some foci of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). However, this result should be confirmed through a precise field study, and if validated, plans should be made to prevent the emergence of new foci of ZCL in the risk areas.