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A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector‐Borne Disease
Author(s) -
Græsbøll K.,
Sumner T.,
Enøe C.,
Christiansen L. E.,
Gubbins S.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
transboundary and emerging diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.392
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1865-1682
pISSN - 1865-1674
DOI - 10.1111/tbed.12249
Subject(s) - biological dispersal , kernel (algebra) , transmission (telecommunications) , disease transmission , representation (politics) , computer science , econometrics , biology , mathematics , virology , demography , telecommunications , population , political science , discrete mathematics , sociology , politics , law
Summary In 2007, bluetongue virus ( BTV ) was introduced to both Denmark ( DK ) and the United Kingdom ( UK ). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within‐herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptions of between‐herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK , based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent‐based model shows greater sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel‐based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster.