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The Color of Electoral Success: Estimating the Effect of Skin Tone on Winning Elections in Mexico
Author(s) -
CamposVazquez Raymundo M.,
RivasHerrera Carolina
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
social science quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.482
H-Index - 90
eISSN - 1540-6237
pISSN - 0038-4941
DOI - 10.1111/ssqu.12933
Subject(s) - representativeness heuristic , tone (literature) , politics , skin color , logistic regression , variables , logit , variable (mathematics) , econometrics , psychology , demographic economics , statistics , economics , social psychology , political science , computer science , mathematics , law , art , mathematical analysis , literature , artificial intelligence
Objective Evidence suggests that voters’ prejudices may lead them to take information shortcuts in choosing political leaders. This study analyzes whether the skin tone of 12,798 candidates influenced the outcome of their electoral campaigns. Methods To determine the probability of winning an election, we estimate a linear regression where skin tone is used as an explanatory variable, with controls such as sex and political party. Based on the number of votes obtained by each candidate, we estimate an ordered logit model. Results Candidates with dark brown skin tones face a probability of winning that is 20–38 percent less than those with intermediate skin color. A one standard deviation increase in skin tone is associated with an 8 percent decrease in the probability of finishing in first place. Conclusion Skin color influences electoral outcomes. Public policies should therefore ensure equal access and true representativeness.