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Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes
Author(s) -
Desrochers Pierre,
Geloso Vincent,
Szurmak Joanna
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
social science quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.482
H-Index - 90
eISSN - 1540-6237
pISSN - 0038-4941
DOI - 10.1111/ssqu.12928
Subject(s) - timeline , perspective (graphical) , balance (ability) , relevance (law) , period (music) , economics , welfare , yield (engineering) , positive economics , psychology , history , law , philosophy , political science , computer science , materials science , archaeology , neuroscience , artificial intelligence , metallurgy , market economy , aesthetics
Objective This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of the outcome of Paul Ehrlich and Stephen Schneider's counteroffer (1995) to economist Julian Simon following Ehrlich's loss in the famous Ehrlich‐Simon wager on economic growth and the price of natural resources (1980‐1990). Methods Literature review, data gathering and critical assessment of the indicators and proxies suggested or implied by Ehrlich and Schneider. Critical assessment of Simon's reasons for rejecting the bet. Data gathering for his alternative indicators. Results For indicators that can be measured satisfactorily, the balance of the outcomes favors the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period. Extending the timeline and accounting for the measurement limitations or dubious relevance of many of their indicators, however, shifts the balance of the evidence towards Simon's perspective. Conclusion Although the outcomes favour the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period, Ehrlich and Schneider.s indicators yielded mixed results in the long run. Simon's preferred indicators of direct human welfare would yield largely favourable outcomes if the bet were extended into the present. Based on this, we claim that Simon's optimistic perspective was once again largely validated.