Premium
Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines
Author(s) -
Reade J. James,
Singleton Carl,
Brown Alasdair
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
scottish journal of political economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.4
H-Index - 46
eISSN - 1467-9485
pISSN - 0036-9292
DOI - 10.1111/sjpe.12264
Subject(s) - football , odds , econometrics , league , point (geometry) , economics , consensus forecast , statistics , actuarial science , computer science , mathematics , logistic regression , history , physics , geometry , archaeology , astronomy
This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.