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What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses †
Author(s) -
Verevis Samuel,
Üngör Murat
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
scottish journal of political economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.4
H-Index - 46
eISSN - 1467-9485
pISSN - 0036-9292
DOI - 10.1111/sjpe.12260
Subject(s) - counterfactual thinking , china , counterfactual conditional , economics , per capita , international trade , free trade agreement , real gross domestic product , international economics , econometrics , geography , free trade , demography , epistemology , population , philosophy , archaeology , sociology
We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.