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Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty
Author(s) -
Oberdabernig Doris A.,
Humer Stefan,
Crespo Cuaresma Jesus
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
scottish journal of political economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.4
H-Index - 46
eISSN - 1467-9485
pISSN - 0036-9292
DOI - 10.1111/sjpe.12140
Subject(s) - economic rent , democratization , democracy , econometrics , economics , bayesian probability , population , endogeneity , covariate , natural resource , per capita , bayesian inference , inference , specification , geography , economic geography , microeconomics , political science , statistics , sociology , mathematics , demography , philosophy , epistemology , politics , law
We analyse the nature of robust determinants of differences in democracy levels across countries taking explicitly into account uncertainty in the choice of covariates and spatial spillovers. We make use of recent developments in Bayesian model averaging to assess the effect of a large number of potential factors affecting democratisation processes and account for several specifications of spatial linkages. Our results indicate that spatial spillovers are present in the data even after controlling for a large number of geographical covariates. Addressing the determinants of democracy without modelling such spillovers may lead to flawed inference about the nature of the determinants of democratisation processes. In particular, our results emphasise the role played by Muslim religion, population size, trade volumes, English language, natural resource rents, GDP per capita, being a MENA country and the incidence of armed conflicts as factors affecting democracy robustly.