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Estimating nonlinear additive models with nonstationarities and correlated errors
Author(s) -
Vogt Michael,
Walsh Christopher
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
scandinavian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.359
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1467-9469
pISSN - 0303-6898
DOI - 10.1111/sjos.12342
Subject(s) - mathematics , estimator , nonparametric statistics , asymptotic distribution , nonparametric regression , statistics , additive model , range (aeronautics) , component (thermodynamics) , series (stratigraphy) , econometrics , paleontology , materials science , physics , biology , composite material , thermodynamics
In this paper, we study a nonparametric additive regression model suitable for a wide range of time series applications. Our model includes a periodic component, a deterministic time trend, various component functions of stochastic explanatory variables, and an AR( p ) error process that accounts for serial correlation in the regression error. We propose an estimation procedure for the nonparametric component functions and the parameters of the error process based on smooth backfitting and quasimaximum likelihood methods. Our theory establishes convergence rates and the asymptotic normality of our estimators. Moreover, we are able to derive an oracle‐type result for the estimators of the AR parameters: Under fairly mild conditions, the limiting distribution of our parameter estimators is the same as when the nonparametric component functions are known. Finally, we illustrate our estimation procedure by applying it to a sample of climate and ozone data collected on the Antarctic Peninsula.