Premium
Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy *
Author(s) -
Gehrke Britta,
Hochmuth Brigitte
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
the scandinavian journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.725
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1467-9442
pISSN - 0347-0520
DOI - 10.1111/sjoe.12395
Subject(s) - economics , unemployment , business cycle , recession , work (physics) , german , working time , financial crisis , labour economics , macroeconomics , monetary economics , mechanical engineering , history , archaeology , engineering
Short‐time work (STW) is a labor‐market policy that subsidizes working‐time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent lay‐offs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. In this paper, we show that the effects of STW are strongly time‐dependent and non‐linear over the business cycle. Discretionary STW policy might save up to 0.87 jobs per short‐time worker in deep economic crises. In expansions, the effects are smaller and might turn negative. We disentangle discretionary STW from automatic stabilization in German data using smooth‐transition vector autoregressions.