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Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects *
Author(s) -
Dovern Jonas,
Zuber Christopher
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
the scandinavian journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.725
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1467-9442
pISSN - 0347-0520
DOI - 10.1111/sjoe.12385
Subject(s) - recession , economics , hysteresis , boom , potential output , monetary economics , demand shock , macroeconomics , keynesian economics , econometrics , monetary policy , environmental science , physics , quantum mechanics , environmental engineering
This paper investigates expert revisions of potential output (PO) estimates following recessions. Using data from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD), we show that downward revisions are substantial, permanent, and mostly driven by supply shocks. In contrast, PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. Revisions are also partly caused by mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre‐recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are correlated with post‐recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis following demand shocks.