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Sudden Stop and Sudden Flood of Foreign Direct Investment: Inverse Bank Run, Output, and Welfare Distribution
Author(s) -
Calvo Guillermo A.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
the scandinavian journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.725
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1467-9442
pISSN - 0347-0520
DOI - 10.1111/sjoe.12041
Subject(s) - sudden stop , economics , foreign direct investment , flood myth , welfare , investment (military) , monetary economics , capital flows , macroeconomics , market economy , geography , liberalization , politics , archaeology , political science , law
In this paper, I focus on a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the literature, namely that the mere expectation of foreign direct investment (FDI) incentivizes long‐maturity investment projects by domestic residents, and a Sudden Stop when expectations are frustrated. Long‐maturity investment projects enhance productivity but increase the economy's vulnerability to Sudden Stop. The discussion is framed in a context in which a Sudden Stop follows a surge of capital inflows (Sudden Flood), and FDI is concentrated on ongoing projects. A Sudden Stop episode can trigger a fire sale of long‐term assets, output collapse, and welfare redistribution, which is another ignored phenomenon.