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Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa
Author(s) -
Kadt Daniel,
Fourie Johan,
Greyling Jan,
Murard Elie,
Norling Johannes
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
south african journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.502
H-Index - 31
eISSN - 1813-6982
pISSN - 0038-2280
DOI - 10.1111/saje.12285
Subject(s) - pandemic , geography , population , shock (circulatory) , influenza pandemic , socioeconomics , development economics , demography , covid-19 , economics , sociology , medicine , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty)
We study the demographic and economic correlates of the 1918 influenza or “Spanish flu” that killed an estimated 6% of South Africa's population. While the pandemic has received some attention in South African historiography and from social scientists in other contexts, little is known about its long‐term impact on the country. Bringing together data from a range of new sources, including population and agricultural censuses, household surveys, and the voters’ rolls, we provide analyses that show, first, the factors that (do and do not) predict flu mortality across South Africa's magisterial districts, and, second, suggest some important consequences of the flu. Our results reveal a large but short‐lived demographic shock, and detectable, if small scale, long‐term economic consequences.