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Testing by betting: A strategy for statistical and scientific communication
Author(s) -
Shafer Glenn
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/rssa.12647
Subject(s) - statistical inference , statistical hypothesis testing , null hypothesis , probabilistic logic , p value , statistical power , computer science , statistical model , inference , outcome (game theory) , confidence interval
The most widely used concept of statistical inference—the p ‐value—is too complicated for effective communication to a wide audience. This paper introduces a simpler way of reporting statistical evidence: report the outcome of a bet against the null hypothesis. This leads to a new role for likelihood, to alternatives to power and confidence, and to a framework for meta‐analysis that accommodates both planned and opportunistic testing of statistical hypotheses and probabilistic forecasts. This framework builds on the foundation for mathematical probability developed in previous work by Vladimir Vovk and myself.