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A scenario analysis of future Hong Kong age and labour force profiles and its implications
Author(s) -
Lloyd Chris J.,
Kwok Raymond,
Yip Paul S. F.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/rssa.12428
Subject(s) - fertility , offset (computer science) , economics , demographic economics , distribution (mathematics) , econometrics , population , development economics , demography , mathematics , sociology , computer science , mathematical analysis , programming language
Summary The consequences of reduced fertility and mortality on the age distribution are an issue for most developed countries, but especially for the ‘Asian tiger’ economies. We use functional data analysis forecasting techniques to project the population of Hong Kong. Our projections include error estimates that allow for forecasting error as well as exogenous variations of fertility and migration numbers. We separate out the effects of pure demographic shifts from projected behavioural changes in labour force participation. This enables us to look at the kinds of changes in labour force participation that would be required to offset the aging effects that we estimate.