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Multiple regression, longitudinal data and welfare in the 19th century: reflections on Yule (1899)
Author(s) -
Plewis Ian
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/rssa.12272
Subject(s) - multilevel model , regression analysis , econometrics , regression , statistics , linear regression , data set , social statistics , observational study , value (mathematics) , perspective (graphical) , sociology , mathematics , geometry
Summary The paper that G. U. Yule read to the Royal Statistical Society in 1899 is, by virtue of its application of multiple regression to observational data, a landmark in social statistics. It is also an illustration of the value of relating a change in an explanatory variable to a change in the response when wishing to draw causal conclusions. This paper returns to Yule's data and analysis from a 21st‐century perspective. A range of multilevel and fixed effects models are fitted to the reconstructed data set and his conclusions are re‐examined. The social and political contexts of Yule's work are also considered.