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Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012
Author(s) -
Bergeaud Antonin,
Cette Gilbert,
Lecat Rémy
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
review of income and wealth
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.024
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1475-4991
pISSN - 0034-6586
DOI - 10.1111/roiw.12185
Subject(s) - leaps , productivity , convergence (economics) , economics , order (exchange) , industrial revolution , information and communications technology , development economics , economic growth , political science , finance , law
In order to examine productivity waves and convergence processes, we study productivity trends, trend breaks, and levels for 13 advanced countries between 1890 and 2012. We highlight two productivity waves, a big one following the second industrial revolution and a smaller one following the ICT revolution. The convergence process has been erratic, halted by inappropriate institutions, technology shocks, financial crises, and above all wars, which led to major productivity level leaps, downwards for countries experiencing war on their soil, and upwards for other countries. Productivity trend breaks have been identified following wars, global financial crises, global supply shocks, and major policy changes. The upward trend break for the U . S . in the mid‐1990s has been confirmed, as has the downward trend break for the euro area in the same period.