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Can External Shocks Explain the A sian Side of Global Imbalances? Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity
Author(s) -
Gossé JeanBaptiste,
Guillaumin Cyriac
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
review of international economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.513
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1467-9396
pISSN - 0965-7576
DOI - 10.1111/roie.12022
Subject(s) - shock (circulatory) , vector autoregression , economics , bayesian vector autoregression , endogeneity , monetary economics , current account , econometrics , bayesian probability , exchange rate , medicine , artificial intelligence , computer science
During the 2000s, we observed the accumulation of global imbalances resulting primarily from massive current account imbalances in the USA and in Asia. This paper studies the impact of external shocks on East A sian countries in order to determine if these can account for the A sian side of global imbalances. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregression ( VAR ) model with block exogeneity using Bayesian inference. The three external shocks are an oil shock, a US monetary shock and a US financial shock. Our main findings are as follows: (i) external shocks account for the current account surplus in K orea, M alaysia, the P hilippines, S ingapore, and T hailand and, to a lesser extent, in J apan and I ndonesia; (ii) the oil shock and the US monetary shock seem to have influenced current account balances through real and monetary channels, and the US financial shock through the financial channel.