Premium
Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion: An analysis of state government finances in Brazil
Author(s) -
Prado Pedro Henrique Martins,
Silva Cleomar Gomes
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
review of development economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.531
H-Index - 50
eISSN - 1467-9361
pISSN - 1363-6669
DOI - 10.1111/rode.12662
Subject(s) - economics , illusion , ordinary least squares , public good , state (computer science) , government (linguistics) , public economics , fiscal policy , government spending , empirical evidence , macroeconomics , welfare economics , econometrics , microeconomics , market economy , welfare , psychology , linguistics , philosophy , epistemology , algorithm , neuroscience , computer science
The aim of this article is to analyze state‐level public finances in Brazil. We examine the dynamics of governmental spending in a panel of 26 Brazilian states in search of evidence of Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion Hypothesis. For the period ranging from 2002 to 2015, three methodologies are applied: dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG). The main empirical results found indicate that (1) there is strong evidence of Fiscal Illusion caused by public deficit and by central government transfer grants; (2) there are possible Flypaper Effects; (3) there is no evidence in support of Wagner’s Law; (4) there is low publicness degree of local expenditures; (5) due to Fiscal Illusion, less‐developed Brazilian states tend to be stuck in a public expenditure growth mechanism, especially in expenses related to non‐public goods, which tend to benefit private interests and lobby groups.