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Costs of civil war and fragile states in Africa
Author(s) -
Dunne John Paul,
Tian Nan
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
review of development economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.531
H-Index - 50
eISSN - 1467-9361
pISSN - 1363-6669
DOI - 10.1111/rode.12612
Subject(s) - endogeneity , instrumental variable , spillover effect , economics , civil conflict , estimation , development economics , developing country , variable (mathematics) , omitted variable bias , demographic economics , spanish civil war , econometrics , macroeconomics , political science , economic growth , management , law , mathematical analysis , mathematics
Abstract This paper provides an analysis of the costs of conflict for the countries that are most affected by it, namely low‐income and fragile countries in Africa. It provides an analysis of the impact of conflict on economic growth using a panel of African countries and investigates the differences between those categorized as fragile and others. It finds that there are significant differences, with fragile countries most affected by conflict. It also considers the potential spillover effects of conflict and finds that fragile states also suffer more from conflicts within neighboring states. Finally, it considers whether the results are robust to endogeneity of the conflict variable. Using instrumental variable estimation confirms the negative effect of conflict and the larger effects on fragile states and gives even larger coefficient estimates.