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On Ambiguity Reduction and the Role of Decision Analysis during the Pandemic
Author(s) -
Rode David C.,
Fischbeck Paul S.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.13705
Subject(s) - ambiguity , seriousness , triage , pandemic , decision analysis , psychology , risk analysis (engineering) , odds , multiple criteria decision analysis , medicine , actuarial science , management science , operations research , computer science , medical emergency , business , covid-19 , political science , economics , disease , pathology , engineering , infectious disease (medical specialty) , machine learning , logistic regression , mathematical economics , law , programming language
Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic has created a multitude of decision problems for a variety of fields. Questions from the seriousness and breadth of the problem to the effectiveness of proposed mitigation measures have been raised. We assert that the decision sciences have a crucial role to play here, as the questions requiring answers involve complex decision making under both uncertainty and ambiguity. The collection, processing, and analysis of data is critical in providing a useful response—especially as information of fundamental importance to such decision making (base rates and transmission rates) is lacking. We propose that scarce testing resources should be diverted away from confirmatory analysis of symptomatic people, as laboratory diagnosis appears to have little decision value in treatment choice over clinical diagnosis in patients presenting with symptoms. In contrast, the exploratory use of testing resources to reduce ambiguity in estimates of the base rate of infection appears to have significant value and great practical import for public policy purposes. As these stances may be at odds with triage practices among medical practitioners, they highlight the important role the decision analyst can play in responding to the challenges of the COVID‐19 pandemic.