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Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix‐Based Simulation Approach
Author(s) -
Zhou Jianfeng,
Reniers Genserik
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.13544
Subject(s) - domino effect , domino , hazard , flexibility (engineering) , probabilistic logic , computer science , reliability engineering , matrix (chemical analysis) , risk analysis (engineering) , engineering , statistics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , medicine , biochemistry , chemistry , physics , materials science , organic chemistry , nuclear physics , composite material , catalysis
Major industrial accidents occurring at so‐called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlations exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of them having a synergistic effect, while others do not. These characteristics make the analytical formulation of domino accidents very complex. In this work, a simple matrix‐based modeling approach for domino effect analysis is proposed. Matrices can be used to represent the mutual influences of different escalation vectors between installations. On this basis, an analysis approach for accident propagation as well as a simulation‐based algorithm for probability calculation of accidents and accident levels is provided. The applicability and flexibility of this approach is discussed while applying it to estimate domino probabilities in a case study.