Premium
Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention
Author(s) -
Huang Yamin,
Gelder P. H. A. J. M.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.13293
Subject(s) - collision , collision avoidance , obstacle , measure (data warehouse) , set (abstract data type) , computer science , simulation , engineering , marine engineering , control theory (sociology) , data mining , computer security , artificial intelligence , control (management) , geography , archaeology , programming language
We propose an innovative time‐varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability. We then measure the TCR as the time‐dependent percentage of overlap between these two sets. Several scenarios are presented to illustrate how the proposed measurement identifies the time‐varying risk levels, and how the approach can be used as an intuitively understandable tool for collision avoidance.