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Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients’ Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings
Author(s) -
Miran Seyed M.,
Ling Chen,
Gerard Alan,
Rothfusz Lans
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.13289
Subject(s) - tornado , probabilistic logic , hazard , action (physics) , alarm , computer security , computer science , cognition , bayesian probability , psychology , engineering , artificial intelligence , meteorology , geography , aerospace engineering , neuroscience , chemistry , physics , organic chemistry , quantum mechanics
Currently, a binary alarm system is used in the United States to issue deterministic warning polygons in case of tornado events. To enhance the effectiveness of the weather information, a likelihood alarm system, which uses a tool called probabilistic hazard information (PHI), is being developed at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue probabilistic information about the threat. This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon. The displays of color‐coded swaths and deterministic polygons were shown to subjects. Some displays had a blue background denoting the probability of any tornado formation in the general area. Participants were asked to report their levels of concern, fear, and protective action at randomly chosen locations within each of seven designated levels on each display. Analysis of a three‐stage nested design showed that providing the uncertainty information via the PHI would appropriately increase recipients’ levels of concern, fear, and protective action in highly dangerous scenarios, with a more than 60% chance of being affected by the threat, as compared with deterministic polygons. The blue background and the color‐coding type did not have a significant effect on the people's cognition of the threat and reaction to it. This study shows that using a likelihood alarm system leads to more conscious decision making by the weather information recipients and enhances the system safety.