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Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research
Author(s) -
French Simon,
Argyris Nikolaos,
Haywood Stephanie M.,
Hort Matthew C.,
Smith Jim Q.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.12904
Subject(s) - crisis management , risk management , business , environmental planning , risk communication , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental resource management , environmental health , geography , political science , environmental science , medicine , finance , law
In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.