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Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions
Author(s) -
Abimbola Majeed,
Khan Faisal
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.12879
Subject(s) - offshore drilling , risk analysis (engineering) , drilling , computer science , operational risk , focus (optics) , event (particle physics) , risk assessment , engineering , risk management , reliability engineering , computer security , mechanical engineering , medicine , physics , management , optics , quantum mechanics , economics
Abstract Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real‐time risk analysis. The real‐time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom‐hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout.