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An Empirical Agent‐Based Model to Simulate the Adoption of Water Reuse Using the Social Amplification of Risk Framework
Author(s) -
Kandiah Venu,
Binder Andrew R.,
Berglund Emily Z.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.12760
Subject(s) - reuse , public opinion , context (archaeology) , social dynamics , empirical research , risk perception , process (computing) , computer science , perception , environmental economics , knowledge management , engineering , artificial intelligence , psychology , economics , geography , political science , philosophy , archaeology , epistemology , neuroscience , politics , law , operating system , waste management
Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large‐scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision‐making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent‐based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the “risk publics” model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community‐level parameters—including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data—are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks.