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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas
Author(s) -
Lozano Olga M.,
Salis Michele,
Ager Alan A.,
Arca Bachisio,
Alcasena Fermin J.,
Monteiro Antonio T.,
Finney Mark A.,
Del Giudice Liliana,
Scoccimarro Enrico,
Spano Donatella
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.12739
Subject(s) - environmental science , climate change , mediterranean climate , wind speed , climatology , meteorology , climate model , climate change scenario , geography , ecology , archaeology , geology , biology
We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981–2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981–2010, 2011–2040, and 2041–2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041–2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.