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Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning
Author(s) -
Dieckmann Nathan F.,
Gregory Robin,
Peters Ellen,
Hartman Robert
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.12639
Subject(s) - numeracy , interpretation (philosophy) , perception , representation (politics) , analytic reasoning , qualitative reasoning , uncertainty quantification , verbal reasoning , computer science , psychology , cognitive psychology , artificial intelligence , deductive reasoning , machine learning , cognition , political science , pedagogy , neuroscience , literacy , politics , law , programming language
In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.